Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are very few macroeconomic events scheduled for Monday, with the only notable report being on retail sales in the US. It's important to note that the market has shown minimal response to macroeconomic data over the past two weeks. Instead, it has primarily reacted to updates involving Donald Trump and any global news that negatively impacts the dollar. This week, the U.S. currency managed to avoid a significant decline, but it has struggled to rebound. It seems the market is waiting for new tariffs from Trump (for example, against the EU) before resuming its sell-off of the dollar.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

The only significant event on Monday is the speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. However, Lagarde speaks frequently, so there is no shortage of information in the market. The ECB's stance on monetary policy is very clear: further reductions in key rates, as inflation no longer poses a concern and the economy has shown extremely weak growth—if any—over the last 2.5 years. Therefore, it is unlikely that the ECB chief will provide any groundbreaking information on Monday.

General Conclusions:

During the first trading day of the week, both currency pairs may experience movement in either direction, as the market is currently driven by emotions, primarily influenced by Donald Trump. If the U.S. President announces new sanctions or tariffs, the dollar could face downward pressure once more. Conversely, if there are no updates from the President, both currency pairs may either experience slight corrections or continue moving sideways. The pound sterling still shows little interest in a correction.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.