विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 17.12.2018

17.12.2018 04:56 PM

Where will the dollar go after the Fed meeting - Goldman opinion

Traders fixed their attention at the most important event of the coming days, the Fed meeting. If the change in rates at the December meeting is clear, then the prospects for the future are vague. Traders can only assume and be content with rumors about a possible pause of tightening the Fed policy.

The dollar has every chance to see new highs in relation to the G-10 basket of currencies if the US Central Bank, following the meeting on December 19, maintains its forecast for three rate hikes in 2019. This was signaled by experts at Goldman Sachs.

As for the forecast of the bank analysts themselves, they believe that the members of the Federal Reserve will still moderate their ardor and reduce the number of series of rate increases to two. Goldman also noted that the dollar may become more expensive in the absence of dovish wording in the final statement or at a press conference.

Experts spoke about the euro. The ECB's conclusion that the balance of risks is shifting in a positive direction, combined with problems in Germany and France, means that the Eurocurrency can show growth against the dollar only after a few months.

In the short term, the euro may weaken against a number of cross-currencies. Goldman Sachs is short on EUR / AUD. According to the strategists, it will help to benefit from the "positive noise" from the trade negotiations between Washington and China and the stability of the yuan.

It is expected that British Prime Minister Theresa May will deal with the problem of leadership in the party, which over time will enhance the positive effect on the pound.