Analysis of Friday's Trades

1H Chart of GBP/USD

On Friday, the GBP/USD pair moved upwards. The euro and the pound continue to closely mirror each other's movements, and an upward correction appears to be developing for both currency pairs. Almost all of Friday's reports favored the British pound. Business activity in the UK finally displayed positive dynamics, while U.S. business activity showed mixed results. Additionally, the U.S. dollar was negatively impacted by the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index.

However, it's too early to rule out the dollar completely. First, the current upward movement is merely a correction. Second, a Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for the new week, followed by a Bank of England meeting the week after. Third, the recent weakness of the dollar was largely driven by market concerns over Donald Trump and his potential disruptive actions on a global scale. From a fundamental and macroeconomic perspective, little has changed over the past five days. On the daily timeframe, it is clear that the downward trend, which has persisted for four months, remains intact.

5M Chart of GBP/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe, several trading signals were generated on Friday. During the European session, novice traders had the opportunity to open long positions after the price bounced off the 1.2372–1.2387 range. This move was followed by a test of the 1.2445 level, where a sell signal was formed. Although this signal did not generate profits, it also did not incur any losses. The final buy signal near the 1.2445 level enabled traders to earn several dozen points in profit.

Trading Strategy for Monday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has begun to form a short-term upward trend, which is essentially a correction. In the medium term, we anticipate a decline in the pound, targeting 1.1800, as we believe this scenario is the most plausible. As a result, we should only expect a downward movement, with the trendline assisting in identifying the end of the current correction.

On Monday, the GBP/USD pair may initiate a downward retracement since the area between 1.2502 and 1.2508 was not breached.

On the 5-minute timeframe, trading levels currently include 1.2010, 1.2052, 1.2089-1.2107, 1.2164-1.2170, 1.2241-1.2270, 1.2301, 1.2372-1.2387, 1.2445, 1.2502-1.2508, 1.2547, 1.2633, 1.2680-1.2685, 1.2723, and 1.2791-1.2798. No significant events are scheduled for Monday in either the UK or the U.S., so movements are expected to be weak.

Core Trading System Rules:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.