Analysis of Trades and Trading Recommendations for the Euro

The test of the 1.0503 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero mark. This confirmed the correct entry point for selling the euro, resulting in a drop to the target level of 1.0458.

The decline in manufacturing activity in the Eurozone prompted significantly larger euro sales than similar data from the U.S. However, both sets of data maintained pressure on risk assets. Today, in the first half of the day, the unemployment data from Spain is unlikely to support the euro, even if it reflects a stable labor market. Although unemployment remains acceptable, some experts believe the actual situation is slightly worse than official figures indicate. A speech by Piero Cipollone, a European Central Bank executive board member, may clarify this context but is unlikely to bring significant changes to the market. His comments will probably focus on current measures to control inflation and maintain financial stability in the Eurozone. Amid recent price increases, the euro's strength remains uncertain, and investors will closely monitor any signals about potential larger monetary policy easing, which could further weaken the euro.

Any poor data from the Eurozone will quickly renew pressure on the euro. I plan to rely on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2 for intraday strategies.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1:

Today, buying the euro is possible at 1.0504 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.0531. At 1.0531, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35-pip movement from the entry point. A rise in the euro in the first half of the day is unlikely.

Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to buy the euro today if the price level of 1.0483 is tested twice consecutively, provided the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected to the opposing levels of 1.0504 and 1.0531.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.0483 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0458, where I plan to exit and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 pip upward movement from the level. Pressure on the pair can return anytime, but selling from as high as possible is best.

Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to sell the euro today if the price level of 1.0504 is tested twice consecutively, provided the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline can be expected to the opposing levels of 1.0483 and 1.0458.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Critical for identifying overbought and oversold zones to guide market entry decisions.

Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders:

• Always approach market entry decisions cautiously.
• Avoid trading during major news releases to sidestep volatile price swings.
• If trading during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses.
• Trading without stop-loss orders or money management practices can quickly deplete your deposit, especially when using large volumes.
• A clear trading plan, like the one outlined above, is essential for successful trading. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently disadvantageous for intraday traders.